Tag Archives: Risk Assessment

Evaluation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score Across Different Subspecialty Patients. (Duke)

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Dean NP, et al. Evaluation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score Across Different Subspecialty Patients. Pediatr Crit Care Med. 2017 Jul;18(7):655-660.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ability of a Pediatric Early Warning Score to predict deterioration in different subspecialty patient populations.

DESIGN: Single center, retrospective cohort study. Patients were classified into five groups: 1) cardiac; 2) hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant; 3) surgical; 4) neurologic; and 5) general medical. The relationship between the Pediatric Early Warning Score and unplanned ICU transfer requiring initiation of specific ICU therapies (intubation, high-flow nasal cannula, noninvasive ventilation, inotropes, or aggressive fluid hydration within 12 hr of transfer) was evaluated.

SETTING: Tertiary care, free-standing, academic children’s hospital.

PATIENTS: All hospitalized acute care patients admitted over a 6-month time period (September 2012 to March 2013).

INTERVENTIONS: None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: During the study time period, 33,800 patient-days and 136 deteriorations were evaluated. Area under the curve ranged from 0.88 (surgical) to 0.94 (cardiac). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 3 ranged from 75% (surgical) to 94% (cardiology) and number needed to evaluate to find one deterioration was 11.5 (neurologic) to 43 patients (surgical). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 4 ranged from 54% (general medical) to 79% (hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant) and number needed to evaluate of 5.5 (neurologic) to 12 patients (general medical). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score of greater than or equal to 5 ranged from 25% (surgical) to 58% (hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant) and number needed to evaluate of 3.5 (cardiac, hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant, neurologic) to eight patients (surgical).

CONCLUSIONS: An elevated Pediatric Early Warning Score is associated with ICU transfer and receipt of ICU-specific interventions in patients across different pediatric subspecialty patient populations.

Racial and Ethnic Variation in Pediatric Cardiac Extracorporeal Life Support Survival. (Carroll)

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Chan T, et al. Racial and Ethnic Variation in Pediatric Cardiac Extracorporeal Life Support Survival. Crit Care Med. 2017 Apr; 45(4):670-678.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have suggested an association between nonwhite race and poor outcomes in small subsets of cardiac surgery patients who require extracorporeal life support. This study aims to examine the association of race/ethnicity with mortality in pediatric patients who receive extracorporeal life support for cardiac support.

DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of registry data.

SETTING: Prospectively collected multi-institutional registry data.

SUBJECTS: Data from all North American pediatric patients in the Extracorporeal Life Support International Registry who received extracorporeal life support for cardiac support between 1998 and 2012 were analyzed. Multivariate regression models were constructed to examine the association between race/ethnicity and hospital mortality, adjusting for demographics, diagnosis, pre-extracorporeal life support care, extracorporeal life support variables, and extracorporeal life support-related complications.

INTERVENTIONS: None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of 7,106 patients undergoing cardiac extracorporeal life support, the majority of patients were of white race (56.9%) with black race (16.7%), Hispanic ethnicity (15.8%), and Asian race (2.8%) comprising the other major race/ethnic groups. The mortality rate was 53.9% (n = 3,831). After adjusting for covariates, multivariate analysis identified black race (relative risk = 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16) and Hispanic ethnicity (relative risk = 1.08; 95% CI, 1.02-1.14) as independent risk factors for mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Black race and Hispanic ethnicity are independently associated with mortality in children who require cardiac extracorporeal life support.

Development and Validation of a Score to Predict Mortality in Children Undergoing Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Respiratory Failure: Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue With Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction Score. (Betters)

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Bailly DK, et al. Development and Validation of a Score to Predict Mortality in Children Undergoing Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Respiratory Failure: Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue With Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction Score. Crit Care Med. 2017 Jan;45(1):e58-e66.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic score for predicting mortality at the time of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation initiation for children with respiratory failure. Preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation mortality prediction is important for determining center-specific risk-adjusted outcomes and counseling families.

DESIGN: Multivariable logistic regression of a large international cohort of pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation patients.

SETTING: Multi-institutional data.

PATIENTS: Prognostic score development: A total of 4,352 children more than 7 days to less than 18 years old, with an initial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation run for respiratory failure reported to the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization’s data registry during 2001-2013 were used for derivation (70%) and validation (30%). Bidirectional stepwise logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with mortality. Retained variables were assigned a score based on the odds of mortality with higher scores indicating greater mortality. External validation was accomplished using 2,007 patients from the Pediatric Health Information System dataset.

INTERVENTIONS: None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction score included mode of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation mechanical ventilation more than 14 days; preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation severity of hypoxia; primary pulmonary diagnostic categories including, asthma, aspiration, respiratory syncytial virus, sepsis-induced respiratory failure, pertussis, and “other”; and preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation comorbid conditions of cardiac arrest, cancer, renal and liver dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for internal and external validation datasets were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.71) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69).

CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction is a validated tool for predicting in-hospital mortality among children with respiratory failure receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support.

Validity of Different Delirium Assessment Tools for Critically Ill Children: Covariates Matter. (Patel)

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Luetz A, et al. Validity of Different Delirium Assessment Tools for Critically Ill Children: Covariates Matter. Crit Care Med. 2016 Nov; 44(11):2060-2069.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate test validity of the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU, the Pediatric Anesthesia Emergence Delirium scale, and the newly developed severity scale for the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU; to prospectively assess covariates and their influence on test validity of the scores.

DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING: PICU of a tertiary care medical center.

PATIENTS: Critically ill patients 5 years old or older ventilated or nonventilated with an ICU length of stay of at least 24 hours.

INTERVENTIONS: None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Patients were scored with the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU and the Pediatric Anesthesia Emergence Delirium scale once daily for a maximum of 21 days. Validity was determined by comparing scoring results with the evaluations of the delirium experts who used the criteria of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 4th Edition, Text Revision, for delirium diagnosis. Sixty-four patients were enrolled and 214 assessments were conducted and included in data analysis. The first assessments within each patient revealed sensitivities of 69.2% for the Pediatric Anesthesia Emergence Delirium scale, 76.9% for the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU, and 84.9% for the severity scale for the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU. Specificities were 98% for all scores. Considering repeated measurements, sensitivities decreased to 35.9% for the Pediatric Anesthesia Emergence Delirium scale and to 52.3% for the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU. The sensitivity of the severity scale for the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU dropped to 71.8%, which was significantly higher compared to the Pediatric Anesthesia Emergence Delirium scale (p = 0.0008). Receiver operator characteristic regression unveiled that sedation and mechanical ventilation had a significant negative effect on the validity of the Pediatric Anesthesia Emergence Delirium scale and the severity scale for the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU. Age and gender had a significant impact on the receiver operator characteristic curve of the severity scale for the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU.

CONCLUSIONS: The severity scale for the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU showed the best test validity when used in critically ill children of 5 years old or older. Nevertheless, validity of delirium screening itself depends on patient specific factors. These factors should be taken into consideration when choosing a delirium screening instrument.